Is the Second Wave of Coronavirus Coming?
On March 11, the World Health Organization (WHO) officially characterized the COVID-19 outbreak as a pandemic. Since then, COVID-19 has swept across the globe. While scientists and public health authorities have made considerable progress in slowing the spread of the virus, the pandemic is by no means over.
The question many researchers are now trying to answer is whether the world is headed toward a second wave of COVID-19. Moreover, what have we learned in the past few months—and how can it help us mitigate the potential consequences of a second (or third) wave?
What Happened in 1918?
The COVID-19 pandemic is often compared to the 1918 Spanish Flu, a pandemic that came in three distinct waves and killed an estimated 50 million people worldwide. The first wave began in March 1918. The second wave dominated the fall, and the third wave emerged in the spring of 1919. Much of the spread of the Spanish Flu was thought to occur due to World War I.
The second wave of the Spanish Flu was by far the deadliest. Scientists have speculated that this increase in lethality occurred due to mutations in the flu virus—although this is still hotly debated given that mutations typically take much longer to develop and propagate.
What Can We Learn From the 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic?
While the 1918 Spanish Flu involved a highly contagious respiratory virus, there are a few distinctions between the COVID-19 pandemic and the Spanish Flu pandemic that are often overlooked.
The 1918 pandemic was caused by a different family of viruses than the novel coronavirus. Why does this matter? SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for COVID-19, appears more stable than the 1918 influenza virus. The spike protein that enables SARS-CoV-2 to attach to and attack human cells has been found to be especially resistant to mutation.
But what else has changed since 1918? The world’s population has almost tripled from less than 2 billion to roughly 7.6 billion. Moreover, the widespread introduction of commercial air travel can now carry infections across the world faster than trains and ships alone.
What Is Herd Immunity?
In 1918, some cities saw infections start to level off as they approached herd immunity. So, what is herd immunity, and how does it work? Herd immunity is a public health term that refers to the protection a community receives from a disease outbreak when enough people in the community have become immune.
Scientists believe that herd immunity will be less helpful with the current COVID-19 pandemic than it was a century ago with the Spanish Flu. Infectious disease experts at Johns Hopkins University estimate that nearly 70% of today's population would need to be immune to the novel coronavirus before herd immunity would take effect.
In contrast, only 35% of the population in 1918 needed to be immune before herd immunity kicked in. Another key detail about COVID-19 is that scientists still don’t know whether recovered individuals gain immunity. A safe and effective vaccine remains in development and may not see the light of day for months to come.
What's Happening Around the World?
Global response to the COVID-19 pandemic has been widely varied since the beginning of the outbreak. Let’s take a look at the number of infections around the world, and how many countries are preventing, preparing for, or already bracing the second wave of COVID-19.
According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), daily case numbers in the European Union and the United Kingdom have reached record highs of more than 45,000 infections on a 14-day notification rate. European public health officials have backed down on reopening plans, imposing restrictions once more.
What factors are driving the sudden spike in infections? The surge emerges following the end of summer vacation. Experts believe students returning to school and employees commuting to city centers may be largely responsible. Another factor may be a mental one—people may have dropped their guard alongside relaxing restrictions. Evidence has shown that young people may be especially prone to such a mindset.
Despite the recent rise in cases, Europe continues to fare more favorably than the United States. While Europe has reported 4.4 million infections and more than 217,000 deaths among a population of 750 million, the U.S. has suffered 6.7 million cases and 198,000 deaths among a population of only 330 million.
Certain countries have brought the virus under control by taking strict preventative measures and launching rampant testing campaigns. For example, China and New Zealand have declared the virus eliminated. Although both countries have had small outbreaks since then, strict quarantine restrictions and a widespread test and trace system have succeeded in quickly snuffing out local outbreaks.
Fewer Deaths
A second wave may not involve a dramatic increase in deaths. Why? Scientists now have a better understanding of the virus, and doctors have developed more effective treatment methods, especially for patients with severe symptoms. Treatments such as dexamethasone, a steroid treatment that targets lung inflammation, has seen positive results among COVID-19 patients, especially when used early on.
While drugs like remdesivir—an antiviral that was given an emergency use authorization (EUA) by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) back in May—have helped decrease mortality rates among hospitalized COVID-19 patients, doctors have also learned simple yet effective techniques for tackling the virus. For example, flipping a patient onto their stomach—a technique known as “proning”—allows oxygen to flow more effectively through the patient’s body.
Keep Your Organization Prepared
Keeping your workforce updated is more important than ever. But watching the news is not enough. In the midst of a global public health emergency, life sciences training must become a top priority.
Now is the time to invest in new skills for your organization. Get your teams up to speed with professional training and certification courses from the Center for Professional Innovation and Education (CfPIE).
Are you interested in keeping your organization COVID-ready? Get in touch with a member of the CfPIE team by calling 1-610-648-7550 or emailing [email protected].
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